An unsettled pattern over the central United States will bring rounds of thunderstorms to similar areas throughout the week. Meteorologists will be keeping an eye on which day will bring the biggest threat for severe storms for several regions.
The week started with a few locally strong thunderstorms in parts of northern and western Texas on Monday. A storm system moving into the southern Plains sparked thunderstorms that produced heavy rain, gusty winds, hail and frequent lightning strikes into the overnight hours.
Into Tuesday night, the threat for heavier thunderstorms and isolated severe weather will shift east with this system. Spotty thunderstorms are forecast to develop from eastern New Mexico to central Texas and southern Oklahoma.
“These thunderstorms will be capable of producing heavier downpours, and even some isolated flooding issues, along with plenty of lightning,” stated Accure weather Meteorologist Courtney Spamer.
Just north of the heavy, gusty thunderstorm area will be a zone where repeating downpours can lead to flash flooding. That zone will be mainly centered on the Ozark Mountains in southern Missouri, northern Arkansas and part of eastern Oklahoma into Tuesday night.
While there can be severe wind and hail reports with these storms, they are expected to be fairly localized.
Accure weather meteorologists will be keeping a close eye on Wednesday’s forecast as a higher chance for more widespread severe thunderstorms is expected across the central United States.
“Another wave of energy will push out of the Rockies, bringing a dose of severe thunderstorms to some of the same locations that will be affected by thunderstorms earlier in the week,” Spamer said.
“As the leading edge of dry air, known as the dry line, advances slowly eastward over the High Plains, the strongest of the severe thunderstorms have the potential to spawn a few strong tornadoes, especially over the western and central portions of Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas at the end of the day Wednesday to Wednesday evening,” added Accure weather Storm Chaser Blake Naftel.
Over the northern portion of the severe weather threat area, such as across Iowa and eastern Nebraska, the main threats will be from hail and heavy rainfall.
On top of the other impacts from these storms, torrential rain will increase the risk for flash flooding in Dodge City and Wichita, Kansas, Oklahoma City and Abilene, Texas.
The storms will tend to congeal into more of a squall line later Wednesday night while pressing toward the lower Plains.
An Accure weather Local StormMax™ wind gust of 70 mph is possible with the strongest storms, according to Accure weather Meteorologist Max Gawryla.
Storminess is forecast to continue in parts of the central Plains into the second half of the week.
The system will run into a large area of high pressure that will usher in warmer conditions across the eastern U.S. through the end of the week.
Thunderstorms are forecast to bring another round of downpours and gusty winds to parts of Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma and Arkansas.
While severe weather is forecast to remain isolated during the second half of the week, a couple hail and damaging wind reports are not out of the question.
A more regional problem may develop related to heavy, repeating rainfall in the coming days.
“Showers and thunderstorms will tend to repeat on a nearly daily basis from central Texas to southern Michigan and northwestern Ohio,” according to Accure weather Senior Meteorologist Alex Sosnowski.
“Enough rain can occur, on the order of 3-6 inches, from the middle of this week to this weekend, to lead to urban and small stream flooding as well as the potential for significant rises on some of the area rivers,” Sosnowski said.